The Political Economy of Bad Data: - Evidence from African Survey & Administrative Statistics

Administrative data across multiple African countries on health, education, agriculture, and poverty systematically exaggerate progress relative to independent surveys. We find evidence for two explanations for these discrepancies: political interference and weak state capacity. Evidence of political interference arises when aid donors pay for results (e.g., immunization rates across 41 countries) or statistics are politically salient (e.g., inflation in Cameroon). In contrast, central governments are themselves misled when civil servants reporting data are responsible for measured progress (e.g., agricultural production in Tanzania) or data determines funding allocations (e.g., school enrollment across 21 countries). These two phenomena suggest distinct policy agendas.